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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 73

Washington Commanders 17 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:29) 5-T.Way punts 18 yards to WAS 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.42 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model