4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 56

Washington Commanders 17 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model