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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 19 for -1 yards (12-S.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP