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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to TB 4, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-13-J.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP