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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

TB
21.6%
NO
78.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.313 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.228 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): -0.275 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.302 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Drew Brees (NO) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TB 17
–
NO 28
Projected margin: NO by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TB

T.J. Fatinikun DE Out Shoulder
Major Wright S Out Abdomen
Bruce Carter LB Questionable Ribs
Danny Lansanah LB Questionable Ankle
Mike Evans WR Questionable Hamstring
Mike Jenkins CB Questionable Hamstring

NO

Jairus Byrd S Out Knee
Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Toe
Keenan Lewis CB Out Hip
C.J. Spiller RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 26
–
NO 19

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:50 FG TB (:50) 2-K.Brindza 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 01:28 TD NO (1:28) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:16 TD TB (:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 83-V.Jackson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 0 TB 9 – NO 7
  • Q3 13:07 TD TB (13:07) 3-J.Winston left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – NO 7
  • Q3 06:09 FG TB (6:09) 2-K.Brindza 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 20 – NO 7
  • Q3 02:25 FG TB (2:25) 2-K.Brindza 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 23 – NO 7
  • Q4 10:19 TD NO (10:19) 35-A.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – NO 13
  • Q4 07:20 TD NO (7:20) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 83-W.Snead for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 13, YAC 3. A flag was thrown and a lengthy discussion amongst the officials ensued, before the official said no foul for offensive pass interference because the block occurred within 1 yard of the line of scrimmage. TB 23 – NO 19
  • Q4 01:56 FG TB (1:56) 2-K.Brindza 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 26 – NO 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 66%

    (10:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to TB 4, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-13-J.Morgan.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (7:02) 5-J.Schum punts 40 yards to NO 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 23-M.Murphy MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 7. 23-M.Murphy to NO 7 for no gain (89-R.Shepard).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 64%

    (:50) 2-K.Brindza 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to TB 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 43-B.Rainey to TB 35 for 18 yards (91-K.Edebali).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:21) 5-J.Schum punts 37 yards to NO 20, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-89-R.Shepard. PENALTY on NO-30-D.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Drescher. 43-B.Rainey to TB 46 for 8 yards (53-R.Humber).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (4:30) 2-K.Brindza 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (6:09) 2-K.Brindza 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (2:25) 2-K.Brindza 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (13:43) 22-M.Ingram left guard to TB 22 for 6 yards (98-C.McDonald).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (8:08) 2-Z.Hocker 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:09) 5-J.Schum punts 39 yards to NO 24, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:56) 2-K.Brindza 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.