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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 2-K.Brindza 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 3, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP