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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 28
New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
What Actually Happened
(13:43) 22-M.Ingram left guard to TB 22 for 6 yards (98-C.McDonald).
The Three Options
GO
+2.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.26 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.97 EP
KICK
+1.43 EP
- 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
+0.02 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
