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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 2-Z.Hocker 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model