Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New Orleans Saints 19

(3:09) 5-J.Schum punts 39 yards to NO 24, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.87 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model