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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 2-K.Brindza 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model