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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 35 yards to TEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model