TEN @ CLE — 4th & Data

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HC Ken Whisenhunt

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HC Mike Pettine

Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TEN

95.6%

CLE

4.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to TEN: Johnny Manziel (CLE) -0.227 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) +1.126 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Johnny Manziel in place of Josh McCown)
TEN offense: +0.302 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
CLE offense: -0.293 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
TEN defense: -0.313 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
CLE defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Johnny Manziel (CLE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TEN 31

–

CLE 10

Projected margin: TEN by 21 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TEN

Antonio Andrews RB Out Hamstring

Sammie Lee Hill DT Out Knee

Cody Riggs CB Out Knee

Jason McCourty CB Doubtful Groin

Delanie Walker TE Questionable Hand

CLE

Josh McCown QB Out Concussion

Scott Solomon LB Out Ankle

Robert Turbin RB Out Ankle

Dwayne Bowe WR Questionable Hamstring

Desmond Bryant DE Questionable Shoulder

Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Foot

Justin Gilbert CB Questionable Hip

Joel Bitonio G Probable Knee

Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

Nate Orchard LB Probable Back

Mitchell Schwartz T Probable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14

–

CLE 28

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:59 TD CLE (12:59) 2-J.Manziel pass deep middle to 11-T.Benjamin for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – CLE 6
Q1 06:33 TD CLE (6:33) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 0 – CLE 13
Q2 01:12 TD CLE (1:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – CLE 20
Q3 01:42 TD TEN (1:42) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 80-A.Fasano for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – CLE 21
Q4 06:48 TD TEN (6:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – CLE 21
Q4 03:01 TD CLE (3:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass deep left to 11-T.Benjamin for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE # 74 reports as an eligible receiver. QB scramble on the play TEN 14 – CLE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 79

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP

p(convert) 44%

(13:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to CLE 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 38 for 14 yards (48-B.Brinkley).
Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 32%

(2:00) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 35 yards to TEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22%

(14:12) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(11:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CLE 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 30 for 16 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 19

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 89%

(6:44) 2-J.Manziel up the middle to TEN 19 for no gain (54-A.Williamson).
Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(2:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 15 for 9 yards (48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 22.
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:51) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 32 for 19 yards (24-J.Bademosi). PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 74

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP

p(convert) 77%

(1:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(11:21) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 58 yards to TEN 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 10 for 5 yards (20-S.Draughn).
Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(7:15) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 31 for 12 yards (25-B.Wreh-Wilson).
Q3 CLE 4th & 20 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 19%

(5:48) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 62 yards to TEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 33 for 16 yards (47-C.Hughlett).
Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(15:00) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 23 for 6 yards (24-J.Bademosi).
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

(6:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 27 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 77%

(1:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 80-A.Fasano to CLE 19 for 8 yards (22-T.Williams).