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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CLE 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 30 for 16 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model