Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 32 for 19 yards (24-J.Bademosi). PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.35 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model