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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.79 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP