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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(7:15) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 31 for 12 yards (25-B.Wreh-Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model