Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 21 – Tennessee Titans 7

(15:00) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 23 for 6 yards (24-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model