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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to DAL 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-L.Dunbar to DAL 19 for 4 yards (32-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model