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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

3-0 HC Dan Quinn
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

2-1 HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
42.8%
DAL
57.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.223 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22 15–29
–
DAL 24 17–31
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Tevin Coleman RB Out Ribs
Devin Hester WR Out Toe
Brooks Reed LB Out Groin
Kroy Biermann DE Probable Not Injury Related
Justin Durant LB Probable Foot
Malliciah Goodman DE Probable Elbow
Julio Jones WR Probable Hamstring
Paul Soliai DT Probable Knee
Paul Worrilow LB Probable Calf

DAL

Dez Bryant WR Out Foot
Randy Gregory DE Out Ankle
Jeremy Mincey DE Out Concussion
Ronald Leary G Questionable Groin
James Hanna TE Probable Knee
Ryan Russell DE Probable Groin
Kyle Wilber LB Probable Hamstring
Jason Witten TE Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 39
–
DAL 28

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:03 TD DAL (14:03) 21-J.Randle right end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Randle orginally ran off tackle before changing course and running around the end. ATL 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 07:12 TD DAL (7:12) 21-J.Randle up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – DAL 13
  • Q1 03:05 TD ATL (3:05) 24-D.Freeman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DAL 14
  • Q2 07:31 TD DAL (7:31) 20-D.McFadden left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – DAL 20
  • Q2 02:23 TD ATL (2:23) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – DAL 21
  • Q2 00:46 TD DAL (:46) 21-J.Randle up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 14 – DAL 27
  • Q2 00:05 FG ATL (:05) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 17 – DAL 28
  • Q3 07:16 TD ATL (7:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a post pattern. ATL 23 – DAL 28
  • Q4 11:30 TD ATL (11:30) 24-D.Freeman up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 31 – DAL 28
  • Q4 03:09 TD ATL (3:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete near right corner of the end zone off fake handoff to the left and roll right. ATL 38 – DAL 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:55) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to DAL 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to ATL 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:44) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to DAL 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 44 for 8 yards (14-E.Weems). Return inside the yardline numbers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:15) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to DAL 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-L.Dunbar to DAL 19 for 4 yards (32-J.Collins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 46%

    (10:28) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to ATL 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 28%

    (3:10) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to ATL 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:34) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Williams. Pass incomplete on a slant pattern.

    See the full breakdown →