Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- DAL defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.223 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DAL offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
ATL
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 14:03 TD DAL (14:03) 21-J.Randle right end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Randle orginally ran off tackle before changing course and running around the end. ATL 0 – DAL 6
- Q1 07:12 TD DAL (7:12) 21-J.Randle up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – DAL 13
- Q1 03:05 TD ATL (3:05) 24-D.Freeman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DAL 14
- Q2 07:31 TD DAL (7:31) 20-D.McFadden left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – DAL 20
- Q2 02:23 TD ATL (2:23) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – DAL 21
- Q2 00:46 TD DAL (:46) 21-J.Randle up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 14 – DAL 27
- Q2 00:05 FG ATL (:05) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 17 – DAL 28
- Q3 07:16 TD ATL (7:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a post pattern. ATL 23 – DAL 28
- Q4 11:30 TD ATL (11:30) 24-D.Freeman up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 31 – DAL 28
- Q4 03:09 TD ATL (3:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete near right corner of the end zone off fake handoff to the left and roll right. ATL 38 – DAL 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:55) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to DAL 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EPp(convert) 70%
(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to ATL 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 61%
(12:44) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to DAL 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 44 for 8 yards (14-E.Weems). Return inside the yardline numbers.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(6:15) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to DAL 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-L.Dunbar to DAL 19 for 4 yards (32-J.Collins).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 46%
(10:28) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to ATL 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 28%
(3:10) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to ATL 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 59 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(1:34) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Williams. Pass incomplete on a slant pattern.