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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to DAL 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model