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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model