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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to ATL 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP