Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 0

(3:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to MIA 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.41 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model