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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 16:25 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

BUF
49.7%
MIA
50.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): +0.165 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BUF

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Ribs
Aaron Williams S Out Neck
Marcus Easley WR Questionable Back
Tony Steward LB Questionable Knee
Dan Carpenter K Probable Abdomen
Percy Harvin WR Probable Hip
Colton Schmidt P Probable right Hip
Tyrod Taylor QB Probable Chest
Jerry Hughes DE Probable Wrist
LeSean McCoy RB Probable Hamstring

MIA

Branden Albert T Doubtful Hamstring
Dion Sims TE Doubtful Concussion
Jordan Cameron TE Questionable Groin
Lamar Miller RB Questionable Ankle
Earl Mitchell DT Questionable Back
Cameron Wake DE Probable Hamstring
Reshad Jones S Probable Hamstring
Mike Pouncey C Probable Elbow
Ryan Tannehill QB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 41
–
MIA 14

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 TD BUF (12:03) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 85-C.Clay for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 06:07 TD BUF (6:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 25-L.McCoy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 11:54 FG BUF (11:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 17 – MIA 0
  • Q2 01:53 TD BUF (1:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 14-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 52-P.Brown [30-B.Rambo] at MIA 43. 52-P.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – MIA 0
  • Q2 00:08 FG BUF (:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 27 – MIA 0
  • Q3 05:46 TD MIA (5:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 18-R.Matthews for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – MIA 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 15-C.Hogan for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [79-D.Shelby]. BUF 33 – MIA 8
  • Q4 08:11 TD MIA (8:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 18-R.Matthews for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-Ma.Williams]. BUF 34 – MIA 14
  • Q4 06:54 TD BUF (6:54) (Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams right tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 40 – MIA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 23 for 7 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:50) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to BUF 19, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:24) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 19 for no gain (28-Bo.McCain).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to MIA 33, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to BUF 48 for 19 yards (58-R.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 48. Penalty on BUF-58-R.Johnson, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (11:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 20%

    (7:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to BUF 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-30-Z.Bowman.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to MIA 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 27%

    (:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 84-J.Cameron INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Darby at BUF 30. 28-R.Darby to MIA 49 for 21 yards (51-M.Pouncey).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 57%

    (8:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (10:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:57) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to BUF 48, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 34%

    (8:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 18-R.Matthews for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-Ma.Williams].

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Parker (28-R.Darby).