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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 27 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model