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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 95

Buffalo Bills 34 – Miami Dolphins 8

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to BUF 48, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.44 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 95, worth -5.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model