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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 19 for no gain (28-Bo.McCain).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model