Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 81

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(12:54) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to DEN 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 34 for 8 yards (25-T.Riddick).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.98 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model