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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 20:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
38.3%
DET
61.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.293 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Peyton Manning (DEN): -0.156 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than DET

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
DET 24
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Kayvon Webster CB Doubtful Ankle
Kenny Anunike DE Questionable Knee
Omar Bolden CB Questionable Foot
C.J. Anderson RB Probable Ankle
Peyton Manning QB Probable Not Injury Related
Brandon Marshall LB Probable Finger
Lerentee McCray LB Probable Groin
Darian Stewart S Probable Groin
Aqib Talib CB Probable Illness
Louis Vasquez G Probable Knee

DET

Brandon Pettigrew TE Out Hamstring
DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Hip
Ezekiel Ansah DE Probable Back
Don Carey S Probable Foot
James Ihedigbo S Probable Knee
Cornelius Lucas T Probable Ankle
Glover Quin S Probable Lower leg
Matthew Stafford QB Probable Ribs
Larry Warford G Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
DET 12

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 04:58 TD DEN (4:58) 23-R.Hillman right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-94-E.Ansah, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 01:07 TD DET (1:07) 35-J.Bell right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 00:13 TD DEN (:13) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-88-D.Thomas, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 13 – DET 6
  • Q3 10:57 TD DET (10:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 21-A.Abdullah for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – DET 12
  • Q4 07:55 FG DEN (7:55) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 17 – DET 12
  • Q4 02:32 TD DEN (2:32) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 81-O.Daniels for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – DET 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:54) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to DEN 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 34 for 8 yards (25-T.Riddick).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (11:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to DET 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:48) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DEN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 49%

    (5:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 31 yards to DET 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-46-A.Brewer.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:29) 6-S.Martin punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 41%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-88-D.Thomas, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 28%

    (7:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DET 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (4:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DEN 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-24-N.Lawson.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:12) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to DET 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:04) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 24 for 5 yards (50-T.Lewis).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (11:47) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-T.Jones to DET 45 for 28 yards (85-V.Green).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 77%

    (7:55) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate.