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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 57

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to DET 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP