4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 51

Denver Broncos 14 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DET 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model