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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 72

Denver Broncos 14 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to DET 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model