Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 67

Detroit Lions 12 – Denver Broncos 14

(14:04) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 24 for 5 yards (50-T.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.19 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model