4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 68

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DEN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP