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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 15

Detroit Lions 12 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP