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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP