Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.275 vs Andrew Luck (IND) -0.022 EPA/dropback
- IND offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- TEN defense: -0.203 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- IND defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
IND
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:46 TD IND (5:46) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 0
- Q2 13:12 TD IND (13:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lowery (35-J.Thomas) at IND 31. 33-D.Lowery for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 0
- Q2 08:33 FG TEN (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 14 – TEN 3
- Q2 00:24 TD TEN (:24) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 13-K.Wright for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 9
- Q3 09:57 TD TEN (9:57) 26-A.Andrews left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 16
- Q3 09:41 TD TEN (9:41) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – TEN 23
- Q3 03:08 FG TEN (3:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 14 – TEN 27
- Q4 06:58 TD IND (6:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 15-P.Dorsett for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – TEN 27
- Q4 05:59 TD IND (5:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 27 – TEN 27
- Q4 02:57 TD IND (2:57) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 34 – TEN 27
- Q4 00:51 TD TEN (:51) 45-J.Fowler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 35 – TEN 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 64%
(13:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(11:00) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 12 for -1 yards (42-C.Geathers).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 64%
(9:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to IND 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 41%
(2:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to IND 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 68%
(:55) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to TEN 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%
(8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(6:37) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to TEN 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 27 for 2 yards (51-S.Moore; 38-T.Varga). PENALTY on TEN-51-D.Bass, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:40) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to TEN 34, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 80Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 31%
(8:32) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee right end pushed ob at IND 38 for 18 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(5:19) 45-J.Fowler left guard to IND 1 for 3 yards (52-D.Jackson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(3:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:22) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-45-M.Overton. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 21 for -2 yards (42-C.Geathers).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%
(12:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to IND 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.
See the full breakdown →
