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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee right end pushed ob at IND 38 for 18 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.74 EP