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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 4
Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 14
What Actually Happened
(5:19) 45-J.Fowler left guard to IND 1 for 3 yards (52-D.Jackson).
The Three Options
GO
+4.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth +0.24 EP
KICK
+2.15 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
