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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to IND 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP