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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to TEN 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP