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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to NE 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-D.Amendola to NE 36 for 9 yards (46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.66 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model