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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

JAX
24.4%
NE
75.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.278 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.105 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

JAX

Andre Branch DE Out Knee
Dwayne Gratz CB Out Ankle
Julius Thomas TE Out Hand
Denard Robinson RB Doubtful Knee
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Doubtful Knee
Luke Joeckel T Questionable Ankle
Brandon Linder G Questionable Knee
Johnathan Cyprien S Questionable Calf
Toby Gerhart RB Probable Abdomen
Marqise Lee WR Probable Hamstring
Allen Hurns WR Probable Thigh

NE

Ryan Wendell C Out Illness
Dominique Easley DT Questionable Hip
Trey Flowers DE Probable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Probable Shoulder
Logan Ryan CB Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 17
–
NE 51

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:59 TD NE (11:59) 33-D.Lewis right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 03:00 FG NE (3:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. JAX 0 – NE 10
  • Q2 09:37 FG JAX (9:37) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 3 – NE 10
  • Q2 03:45 FG NE (3:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. JAX 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:22 TD NE (:22) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 400 career TD passes, 4th most all-time. JAX 3 – NE 19
  • Q3 10:55 FG NE (10:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. JAX 3 – NE 23
  • Q3 09:07 TD NE (9:07) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NE 29
  • Q3 06:25 TD JAX (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NE 30
  • Q3 03:25 TD NE (3:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 82-K.Martin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – NE 36
  • Q4 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – NE 43
  • Q4 03:34 TD NE (3:34) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 35 1st downs ties franchise record (10/7/12 vs Denver) JAX 10 – NE 50
  • Q4 01:27 TD JAX (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 86-C.Harbor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – NE 51

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:04) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to NE 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-D.Amendola to NE 36 for 9 yards (46-C.Tinker).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 21%

    (7:27) 19-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NE 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (3:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 87%

    (9:37) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (3:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 20 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%

    (10:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:02) 19-B.Anger punts 57 yards to NE 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Edelman to NE 33 for 8 yards (86-C.Harbor).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:01) (Punt formation) 33-C.Grant right end to JAX 24 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:27) 19-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NE 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 9 yards (12-T.Washington).