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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 2

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP