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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 19-B.Anger punts 57 yards to NE 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Edelman to NE 33 for 8 yards (86-C.Harbor).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model