Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New England Patriots 37

(2:01) (Punt formation) 33-C.Grant right end to JAX 24 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP