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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 40 yards to KC 24, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 24 for no gain (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.71 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model