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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Monday 2015-09-28 · 20:30 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

KC
20.3%
GB
79.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.249 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.405 vs Alex Smith (KC) -0.036 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.187 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

KC 19
–
GB 30
Projected margin: GB by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

KC

Jeff Allen G Probable Knee
Eric Fisher T Probable Ankle
Demetrius Harris TE Probable Foot
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Achilles
Donald Stephenson T Probable Ankle
De'Anthony Thomas WR Probable Calf
Charcandrick West RB Probable Achilles
Albert Wilson WR Probable Shoulder

GB

Bryan Bulaga T Out Knee
Demetri Goodson CB Out Hamstring
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Calf
Sean Richardson S Questionable Ankle
Aaron Ripkowski RB Questionable Shoulder
Davante Adams WR Questionable Ankle
Eddie Lacy RB Questionable Ankle
Mike Neal LB Questionable Groin
Randall Cobb WR Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 28
–
GB 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:50 TD GB (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-T.Montgomery for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 02:23 TD GB (2:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 12:08 TD KC (12:08) (Shotgun) 25-J.Charles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – GB 14
  • Q2 06:20 FG GB (6:20) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. KC 7 – GB 17
  • Q2 00:56 TD GB (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 89-J.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-91-T.Hali, Defensive Offside, declined. KC 7 – GB 23
  • Q3 07:22 TD GB (7:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – GB 30
  • Q3 01:00 TD KC (1:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Maclin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – GB 31
  • Q4 12:13 TD GB (12:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – GB 37
  • Q4 10:01 TD KC (10:01) (Shotgun) 25-J.Charles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – GB 38
  • Q4 01:30 TD KC (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Charles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – GB 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 40 yards to KC 24, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 24 for no gain (83-J.Janis).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to GB 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde to GB 31 for 7 yards (57-D.Alexander).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 24%

    (8:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to GB 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to GB 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde to GB 44 for 13 yards (35-C.West).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 53%

    (13:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb [91-T.Hali].

  • Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (6:20) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to GB 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 32 for 10 yards (90-J.Mauga).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 30 for no gain.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:45) 8-T.Masthay punts 40 yards to KC 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 30 for no gain (47-J.Ryan). PENALTY on GB-24-Q.Rollins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (10:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 61 yards to GB 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:10) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to KC 13, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 15 for 2 yards (32-C.Banjo; 30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on KC-27-T.Branch, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to KC 17, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 17 for no gain (83-J.Janis).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 28%

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 19-J.Maclin to GB 32 for 17 yards (37-S.Shields). GB-37-S.Shields was injured during the play.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 85%

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 81-J.Avant to GB 21 for 3 yards (24-Q.Rollins).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (:29) 8-T.Masthay punts 40 yards to KC 11, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 27 for 16 yards (32-C.Banjo).