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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to GB 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde to GB 31 for 7 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP