Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 24

(13:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 30 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model